2026 Cuban crisis

This article is about the 2026 crisis between Cuba and the United States. For the crisis between the US and the USSR in Cuba in 1962, see Cuban Missile Crisis.
2026 Cuban crisis
Part of Operation Southern Spear

Location of Cuba in its region
Date3 January 2026 – present
Location
Cuba
Status Ongoing
U.S. sanctions on any countries sending oil to Cuba
Belligerents
United States
Cuba Cuban opposition		 Cuba
Commanders and leaders
Donald Trump
United States Marco Rubio[1]
United States Pete Hegseth
Cuba José Daniel Ferrer
Cuba Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara
Cuba María Payá Acevedo		 Miguel Díaz-Canel
Cuba Salvador Valdés Mesa
Cuba Manuel Marrero Cruz
Cuba Esteban Lazo Hernández
Cuba Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla
Cuba Álvaro López Miera
Cuba Raúl Castro

The 2026 Cuban crisis[a] is an oil shortage and economic crisis in Cuba. The island is dependent on imported oil, mostly purchased from Venezuela and Mexico, but after the United States' intervention in Venezuela, in which U.S. forces ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the resulting blockade of Venezuelan oil destined for Cuba left the island without adequate supply.[2] The United States is motivated by a desire for regime change on the island by the end of 2026.[3]

The United States has begun blocking oil tankers heading to Cuba, targeting companies such as the Mexican state-owned Pemex and threatening the responsible countries with tariffs should they resist.[4]

President Trump has called on Cuba to "make a deal before it's too late" and jokingly called Marco Rubio "a next President of Cuba", suggesting he can hold an important role in a potential transition.[5]

Course of events

Background

Cuba's economy depends on foreign oil with most of it imported from Venezuela and Mexico.[2] Recent but persistent issues with Cuba's economy and electrical grid triggered the March 2024 Cuban protests and 2024–2025 Cuba blackouts.[6] In December 2025, as part of the escalation that ended with the United States intervention in Venezuela, the United States seized tankers with Venezuelan oil destined for Cuba and declared a blockade on exports of Venezuelan oil.[7] The United States confirmed that regime change in Cuba is a goal by the end of the year,[5] asking the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel to "make a deal before it's too late".[4]

Blackouts in Cuba

Cuba experienced its lowest ever temperature of 0 °C (32 °F) on February 3 as measured at a weather station in Matanzas Province.[8] On February 4 the island experienced a total blackout in the eastern provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín and Granma, while the western part of the island and Havana suffered serious difficulties with electricity.[9]

Aircraft fuel crisis

On 9 February, Cuba stated that it would not refuel other planes at airports due to a lack of fuel.[10] Air Canada suspended flights to the country on the same day, while Rossiya and Nordwind did so two days later, all citing ongoing fuel shortages in the island as a reason.[11][12]

Havana oil refinery fire

A fire broke out at a key fuel processing plant on Feburary 13 in the Cuban capital of Havana, threatening to exacerbate an energy crisis as the country struggles under an oil blockade imposed by the United States. A large plume of smoke was seen rising above Havana Bay from the Nico Lopez refinery on Friday, drawing the attention of the capital’s residents before fading as fire crews fought to bring the situation under control. Cuba’s Ministry of Energy and Mines said the fire, which erupted in a warehouse at the refinery, was eventually extinguished and that “the cause is under investigation”. There were no injuries and the fire did not spread to nearby areas, the ministry said in a post on social media. “The workday at the Nico Lopez Refinery continues with complete normalcy,” the ministry said. The location of the fire was close to where two oil tankers were moored in Havana’s harbour.[13]

International actions

Halt of Mexican oil

After the ouster of Maduro the United States began increasing its pressure on Mexico to reduce its oil sales to Cuba with President Donald Trump threatening tariffs against any country supplying Cuba with oil.[14] Mexico temporarily halted shipments of oil to Cuba by January 27 and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that the decision to halt oil deliveries was "a sovereign decision".[15]

Cancelled visa-free entry to Nicaragua

The government of Nicaragua cancelled visa-free travel for Cuban citizens in February 2026. This border was a frequent route to escape Cuba, used by thousands of migrants since its implementation in November 2021 following the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear if the measure was a direct request from United States administration but it is part of a series of concessions made by the administration of Daniel Ortega.[16]

Cuban government response

Initially, Miguel Díaz-Canel used hawkish rhetoric about "U.S. imperialism", and called people to prepare for a "war of the entire nation", while organizing state-sponsored demonstrations against the American oil blockade. However, on 6 February, his rhetoric became milder after blackout, when he declared that "Cuba is ready for a talk with Washington for every topic without prerequisites", while rejecting negotiations on cases what he viewed as internal Cuban affairs.[17]

Cuban opposition reactions

On 6 February, El País conducted interview with various Cuban dissidents, including José Daniel Ferrer, Manuel Cuesta Morúa and María Payá Acevedo. Their reactions were a mix of hope and warning against manipulations, including views that the Cuban regime could cease talks when it stabilizes itself.[18]

Anti-government protests

On 6 February, a massive cacerolazo protest happened during a blackout in Arroyo Naranjo district of Havana.[19]

Reactions

Cuba and the US

Other countries

  • Brazil President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva condemned the U.S. fuel blockade and called for humanitarian help for Cubans.[20]
  • Canada Canadian authorities warned about Cuba refusing to refuel Canadian planes at airports and called for Canadians to return.[21]
  • China Foreign Minister of China Lin Jian stated "China firmly supports Cuba in safeguarding its national sovereignty and security, and opposes foreign interference," and "We will always provide support and help to the Cuban side to the best of our ability."[22]
  • Mexico President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum warned about a potential humanitarian crisis.
  • Portugal Portuguese authorities are helping tourists return to Portugal via a stopover in the Dominican Republic due to the fuel scarcity in Cuba. The Portuguese hotel chain Vila Galé closed its operations in Varadero and Havana.[23]
  • Russia President of Russia Vladimir Putin condemned U.S. actions and claimed that Russia will continue to send oil to Cuba despite the threats of blockade.[24]
  • United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that he is "extremely concerned" about the humanitarian situation in Cuba, "which will worsen, or even collapse," if the country's oil needs are not met.[25]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ also called the United States–Cuba crisis, Second Cuban Crisis or a Second Special Period
  1. ^ Michael Crowley; Edward Wong (12 December 2025). "For Rubio the Cuba Hawk, the Road to Havana Runs Through Venezuela". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 13 December 2025. Retrieved 18 December 2025.
  2. ^ a b Robles, Frances (19 January 2026). "U.S. Threatens Cuba's Stability by Choking Off Venezuelan Oil". The New York Times.
  3. ^ de Córdoba, José (2026-01-22). "The U.S. Is Actively Seeking Regime Change in Cuba by the End of the Year". The Wall Street Journal.
  4. ^ a b "Cuba condemns Trump's decision to impose tariffs on nations sending oil to Cuba". The Caribbean Council. 2 February 2026.
  5. ^ a b "Trump tells Cuba to 'make a deal, before it is too late'". BBC. 11 January 2026. Retrieved 11 January 2026.
  6. ^ "Rare protests erupt in Cuba over food and electricity shortages". France 24. 18 March 2024.
  7. ^ Wong, Edward; Romero, Shimon; Savage, Charlie; Barnes, Julian E. (17 December 2025). "Trump Orders Blockade of Some Oil Tankers to and From Venezuela". The New York Times.
  8. ^ "Tropical Cuba registers freezing point for first time". GMA News. AFP. 2026-02-04. Retrieved 2026-02-04.
  9. ^ Stelmach, Waldemar (5 February 2026). "Kuba pogrąża się w mroku. Wschód kraju bez prądu". RMF24.
  10. ^ "La dictadura de Cuba informó a las aerolíneas que a partir del lunes se queda sin combustible para aviones". Infobae. 8 Feb 2026.
  11. ^ "Air Canada suspends flights to Cuba due to fuel shortage". Al Jazeera. 2026-02-10. Retrieved 2026-02-10.
  12. ^ "Russian Airlines Suspend Flights to Cuba, Evacuate Tourists Amid Fuel Crisis". The Moscow Times. 2026-02-11. Retrieved 2026-02-11.
  13. ^ Lee, David D. (2026-02-14). "Fire at Havana oil refinery as Cuba's fuel crisis deepens". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 2026-02-14.
  14. ^ Singh, Kanishka; Sherwood, Dave (29 Jan 2026). "Trump threatens tariffs on any nation supplying Cuba with oil". Reuters.
  15. ^ O'Boyle, Brendan (27 Jan 2026). "Mexico's Sheinbaum does not deny halting oil shipment to Cuba". Reuters.
  16. ^ Aburto, Wilfredo Miranda (2026-02-12). "Nicaragua closes the border to Cubans migrating to the US". EL PAÍS English. Retrieved 2026-02-14.
  17. ^ Błaziak, Paulina (2026-02-06). "Kuba pogrążona w kryzysie. Prezydent powoli odpuszcza, chce rozmów z Trumpem". Interia Biznes.
  18. ^ Colomé, Carla Gloria (2026-02-06). "Cuban opposition leaders on dialogue with the US: 'The solution to the suffering of the people must be at the center of the debate'". El País.
  19. ^ Lesiuk, Marek (2026-02-08). "Gospodarka imploduje z braku paliwa, cały kraj w ciemnościach. Na Kubie kończy się paliwo". BitHub.pl.
  20. ^ "Prezydent Brazylii poparł władze Kuby i Wenezueli. Uderzył w działania USA". Polska Agencja Prasowaw. 8 February 2026. Retrieved 8 February 2026.
  21. ^ "Risk level upgraded: Canadians urged to avoid non-essential travel to Cuba". The Canadian Press. 12 February 2026.
  22. ^ "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian's Regular Press Conference on February 10, 2026". Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 10 Feb 2026.
  23. ^ "Portugueses em Cuba regressam pela República Dominicana". 12 Feb 2026.
  24. ^ Sukhankin, Sergey (22 January 2026). "Kremlin Views the Potential Loss of Cuba as Major Symbolic Blow". Jamestown. Retrieved 22 January 2026.
  25. ^ "ONU preocupada com possível "colapso" humanitário em Cuba face à escassez de petróleo". SAPO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 13 February 2026.
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